Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands

International audience ; During emerging epidemics of infectious diseases, it is vital to have up-to-date information on epidemic trends, such as incidence or health care demand, because hospitals and intensive care units have limited excess capacity. However, real-time tracking of epidemics is difficult, because of the inherent delay between onset of symptoms or hospitalizations, and reporting. We propose a robust algorithm to correct for reporting delays, using the observed distribution of reporting delays. We apply the algorithm to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations as reported... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Donker, Tjibbe
Boven, Michiel
Ballegooijen, W. Marijn
Klooster, Tessa M.
Wielders, Cornelia C.
Wallinga, Jacco
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2011
Verlag/Hrsg.: HAL CCSD
Schlagwörter: Influenza / Epidemiology / Hospitalization / Estimation techniques / Disease notification / [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26791459
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00680182

International audience ; During emerging epidemics of infectious diseases, it is vital to have up-to-date information on epidemic trends, such as incidence or health care demand, because hospitals and intensive care units have limited excess capacity. However, real-time tracking of epidemics is difficult, because of the inherent delay between onset of symptoms or hospitalizations, and reporting. We propose a robust algorithm to correct for reporting delays, using the observed distribution of reporting delays. We apply the algorithm to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations as reported in the Netherlands. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide unbiased predictions of the actual number of hospitalizations in real-time during the ascent and descent of the epidemic. The real-time predictions of admissions are useful to adjust planning in hospitals to avoid exceeding their capacity.