Multivariate autoregressive modelling and conditional simulation for temporal uncertainty analysis of an urban water system in Luxembourg

Uncertainty is often ignored in urban water systems modelling. Commercial software used in engineering practice often ignores the uncertainties of input variables and their propagation because of a lack of user-friendly implementations. This can have serious consequences, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems (UDSs) and the inaccurate estimation of pollution released to the environment. This paper introduces an uncertainty analysis in urban drainage modelling, built on existing methods and applied to a case study in the Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. The case study make... Mehr ...