Analysis of simulated outbreaks with fixed model parameters in the MCMC runs, while varying the number of introductions and coalescent rate in the history host.

The model parameters are fixed at the simulation values. (A) The mean estimated median number of introductions. The black line indicates the simulated number of introductions. (B) Percentage of correctly identified infectors. The grey bar indicates cases for which the true infector has the highest posterior weight. The transparent bar indicates cases for which the true infector is contained in the smallest set of candidate infectors with at least 95% of the posterior weight. (C) Classification of the incorrectly identified infectors in the maximum credibility tree. The grey bars indicate the c... Mehr ...