Abstract Purpose Our aim was to investigate prospective associations of consumption of total dairy and dairy types with incident prediabetes in a Dutch population-based study. Methods Two enrolment waves of the Hoorn Studies were harmonized, resulting in an analytic sample of 2262 participants without (pre-) diabetes at enrolment (mean age 56 ± 7.3 years; 50% male). Baseline dietary intake was assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires. Relative risks (RRs) were calculated between dairy, fermented dairy, milk, yogurt (all total/high/low fat), cream and ice cream and prediabetes. Additionally, substituting one serving/day of dairy types associated with prediabetes with alternative dairy types was analysed. Results During a mean 6.4 ± 0.7 years of follow-up, 810 participants (35.9%) developed prediabetes. High fat fermented dairy, cheese and high fat cheese were associated with a 17% (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.69–0.99, p trend = 0.04), 14% (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73–1.02, p trend = 0.04) and 21% (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66–0.94 , p trend = 0.01) lower risk of incident prediabetes, respectively, in top compared to bottom quartiles, after adjustment for confounders. High fat cheese consumption was continuously associated with lower prediabetes risk (RR servings/day 0.94, 95% CI 0.88–1.00, p = 0.04). Total dairy and other dairy types were not associated with prediabetes risk in adjusted models, irrespective of fat content (RR ~ 1). Replacing high fat cheese with alternative dairy types was not associated with prediabetes risk. Conclusion The highest intake of high fat fermented dairy, cheese and high fat cheese were associated with a lower risk of prediabetes, whereas other dairy types were not associated. Cheese seems to be inversely associated with type 2 diabetes risk, despite high levels of saturated fatty acids and sodium.