The foreign exchange impact of the fiscal rule in Colombia. ; El impacto cambiario de la regla fiscal en Colombia.

The target of this paper is to establish whether the fiscal rule could have eventually an impact on the exchange rate so it could ease the effects of the dutch disease. A counter-factual experiment is carried out by simulating the implementation in Colombia during the last thisty years of a fiscal rule alike the one proposed by the Comite Técnico Interinstitucional, through an equilibrium exchange rate model and cointegration analysis in a VEC model. It is foundthat the fiscal rule would actually mitigatethe appreciation, but it could also increase the exchange rate volatility. ; El objetivo d... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Cano Ortíz, David
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2012
Verlag/Hrsg.: Universidad Católica de Colombia
Schlagwörter: Fiscal rule / Equilibrium real exchange rate / Dutch disease / Natrex / Cointegration / Vec / Regla fiscal / Casa de cambio real de eguilibrio / Enfermedad holandesa / Cointegración
Sprache: Spanish
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26673998
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/511

The target of this paper is to establish whether the fiscal rule could have eventually an impact on the exchange rate so it could ease the effects of the dutch disease. A counter-factual experiment is carried out by simulating the implementation in Colombia during the last thisty years of a fiscal rule alike the one proposed by the Comite Técnico Interinstitucional, through an equilibrium exchange rate model and cointegration analysis in a VEC model. It is foundthat the fiscal rule would actually mitigatethe appreciation, but it could also increase the exchange rate volatility. ; El objetivo de este documento es determinar si la regla fiscal puede llegar a tener un impacto sobre la tasa de cambio, que logre mitigar, en parte, los efectos de la enfermedad holandesa. Para ello, se realiza un experimento contrafactual simulando la implementación en Colombia, en los últimos treinta años, de una regla fiscal como la aprobada por el Comité Técnico Interinstitucional, a través de un modelo de tasa de cambio real de equilibrio y de un análisis de cointegración en un modelo VEC. Se concluye que la regla fiscal, efectivamente, lograría mitigar la apreciación, pero a la vez podría incrementar la volatilidad cambiaria.