Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-lev... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Vermeersen, Bert L. A.
Slangen, Aimee B. A.
Gerkema, Theo
Baart, Fedor
Cohen, Kim M.
Dangendorf, Sonke
Duran-Matute, Matthias
Frederikse, Thomas
Grinsted, Aslak
Hijma, Marc P.
Jevrejeva, Svetlana
Kiden, Patrick
Kleinherenbrink, Marcel
Meijles, Erik W.
Palmer, Matthew D.
Rietbroek, Roelof
Riva, Riccardo E. M.
Schulz, Elisabeth
Slobbe, D. Cornelis
Simpson, Matthew J. R.
Sterlini, Paul
Stocchi, Paolo
van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
van der Wegen, Mick
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2018
Reihe/Periodikum: Vermeersen , B L A , Slangen , A B A , Gerkema , T , Baart , F , Cohen , K M , Dangendorf , S , Duran-Matute , M , Frederikse , T , Grinsted , A , Hijma , M P , Jevrejeva , S , Kiden , P , Kleinherenbrink , M , Meijles , E W , Palmer , M D , Rietbroek , R , Riva , R E M , Schulz , E , Slobbe , D C , Simpson , M J R , Sterlini , P , Stocchi , P , van de Wal , R S W & van der Wegen , M 2018 , ' Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea ' , Netherlands journal of geosciences-Geologie en mijnbouw , vol. 97 , no. 3 , pp. 79-127 . https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7
Schlagwörter: climate change / regional sea-level scenarios / sea-level rise / Wadden Sea / GLACIAL-ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT / SOUTHERN NORTH-SEA / ICE-SHEET DYNAMICS / OCEAN HEAT-CONTENT / RHINE-MEUSE DELTA / SATELLITE ALTIMETRY / CLIMATE-CHANGE / BRITISH-ISLES / WESTERN NETHERLANDS / MASS-BALANCE
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26672084
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://hdl.handle.net/11370/e91641c3-4ee8-421b-bf4c-7aa769944669

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07 +/- 0.06 m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01 m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6 mm a(-1) for ...