The Dutch Disease Revisited: Theory and Evidence

Contrary to empirical evidence, the Dutch disease hypothesis, driven by Learning By Doing (LBD), does not predict the steady-state real exchange rate appreciation and economic growth deceleration due to a resource boom. To do so, I first represent a simple model to fill the theory's gap, and then adopt a dynamic panel data approach for a sample of 132 countries over the period 1970-2014 to re-evaluate both symptoms of the hypothesis in systematic analysis. The main findings are threefold. First, a resource boom appreciates the real exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate appreciation dec... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Reisinezhad, Arsham
Dokumenttyp: preprint
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Verlag/Hrsg.: HAL CCSD
Schlagwörter: Natural resource / The Dutch Disease / Real exchange rate / Growth rate / JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C33 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models / JEL: O - Economic Development / Innovation / Technological Change / and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development / and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O13 - Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products / and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration / [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26631247
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03012647

Contrary to empirical evidence, the Dutch disease hypothesis, driven by Learning By Doing (LBD), does not predict the steady-state real exchange rate appreciation and economic growth deceleration due to a resource boom. To do so, I first represent a simple model to fill the theory's gap, and then adopt a dynamic panel data approach for a sample of 132 countries over the period 1970-2014 to re-evaluate both symptoms of the hypothesis in systematic analysis. The main findings are threefold. First, a resource boom appreciates the real exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate appreciation decelerates the rate of growth in both sectors such that the shrinkage is larger in the manufacturing sector than in the service sector. This, in turn, makes the relative output level of the manufacturing sector to the service sector be smaller and economic growth be slower. Third, these effects are more intensive in resource-rich countries than in resource-poor countries.