Business Dynamics with Scenarios on Dutch Agriculture and its Institutional Arrangements

This paper investigates the development in the Durch Agri-Food innovation system. Main components of the system are agriculture and agribusiness, the promotion of interests in the lobby system and the knowledge system. Each has its own dynamics but they are until now tied together by institutional arrangements. Based on a historical description we formulate a simple business dynamics model. The robustness of the system is investigated by a scenario analysis. Results have been checked by interviews with experts.