Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach
Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main i... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | article/Letter to editor |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2020 |
Schlagwörter: | Agent-based modelling (ABM) / Coastal tourism / Curaçao / Dynamic vulnerability approach / Environmental change / Scenario discovery |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26617534 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/simulating-emerging-coastal-tourism-vulnerabilities-an-agent-base |
Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.