Verification of space weather forecasting at the Regional Warning Center in Belgium

The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC) in Brussels at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) has been providing daily space weather forecasts for more than a decade. A verification analysis was applied to evaluate the performance of the SIDC forecasts of fundamental space weather parameters such as the F10.7 radio flux, solar flare activity, and local geomagnetic index. Strengths and weaknesses are determined compared to common numerical models. Descriptive model statistics, common verification measures, error analysis and conditional plots related to forecasts and observations are p... Mehr ...