All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century

Background: The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country's COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was compared with the number of deaths from all-cause mortality. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was also compared with historical mortality rates from the last century including those of the Spanish influenza pandemic. Methods: Excess mortality predictions and COVID-19 mortality data were analysed for the... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Bustos Sierra, Natalia
Bossuyt, Nathalie
Braeye, Toon
Leroy, Mathias
Moyersoen, Isabelle
Peeters, Ilse
Scohy, Aline
Van der Heyden, Johan
Van Oyen, Herman
Renard, Francoise
Dokumenttyp: journalarticle
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Schlagwörter: Medicine and Health Sciences / INFLUENZA MORTALITY / PANDEMIC INFLUENZA / IMPACT / COVID-19 / Mortality / All-cause mortality / Excess mortality / Pandemic
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26602439
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8689303

Background: The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country's COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was compared with the number of deaths from all-cause mortality. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was also compared with historical mortality rates from the last century including those of the Spanish influenza pandemic. Methods: Excess mortality predictions and COVID-19 mortality data were analysed for the period March 10th to June 21st 2020. The number of COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 mortality rate per million were calculated for hospitals, nursing homes and other places of death, according to diagnostic status (confirmed/possible infection). To evaluate historical mortality, monthly mortality rates were calculated from January 1900 to June 2020. Results: Nine thousand five hundred ninety-one COVID-19 deaths and 39,076 deaths from all-causes were recorded, with a correlation of 94% (Spearman's rho, p < 0,01). During the period with statistically significant excess mortality (March 20th to April 28th; total excess mortality 64.7%), 7917 excess deaths were observed among the 20,159 deaths from all-causes. In the same period, 7576 COVID-19 deaths were notified, indicating that 96% of the excess mortality were likely attributable to COVID-19. The inclusion of deaths in nursing homes doubled the COVID-19 mortality rate, while adding deaths in possible cases increased it by 27%. Deaths in laboratory-confirmed cases accounted for 69% of total COVID-19-related deaths and 43% of in-hospital deaths. Although the number of deaths was historically high, the monthly mortality rate was lower in April 2020 compared to the major fatal events of the last century. Conclusions: Trends in all-cause mortality during the first wave of the epidemic was a key indicator to validate the Belgium's high COVID-19 mortality figures. A COVID-19 ...