Comparison of Soft Indicator and Poisson Kriging for the Noise-Filtering and Downscaling of Areal Data: Application to Daily COVID-19 Incidence Rates

This paper addresses two common challenges in analyzing spatial epidemiological data, specifically disease incidence rates recorded over small areas: filtering noise caused by small local population sizes and deriving estimates at different spatial scales. Geostatistical techniques, including Poisson kriging (PK), have been used to address these issues by accounting for spatial correlation patterns and neighboring observations in smoothing and changing spatial support. However, PK has a limitation in that it can generate unrealistic rates that are either negative or greater than 100%. To overc... Mehr ...