Foreign demand shocks to production networks: Firm responses and worker impacts

We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. Our estimates of firm responses suggest that Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor. Motivated and guided... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Dhyne, Emmanuel
Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken
Komatsu, Toshiaki
Mogstad, Magne
Tintelnot, Felix
Dokumenttyp: doc-type:workingPaper
Erscheinungsdatum: 2022
Verlag/Hrsg.: Brussels: National Bank of Belgium
Schlagwörter: ddc:330 / F16 / J22 / E00 / Production networks / Foreign demand shocks / Imperfect labor market / Fixed costs / Nachfrage / Außenhandel / Schock / Wirkungsanalyse / Unternehmensnetzwerk / Beschäftigungseffekt / Belgien
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26543588
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : http://hdl.handle.net/10419/273116

We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. Our estimates of firm responses suggest that Belgian firms pass on a large share of a foreign demand shock to their domestic suppliers, face upward-sloping labor supply curves, and have sizable fixed overhead costs in labor. Motivated and guided by these findings, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model that allows us to study how idiosyncratic and aggregate changes in foreign demand propagate through a small open economy and affect firms and workers. Our results suggest that the way the labor market is typically modeled in existing research on foreign demand shocks - with no fixed costs and perfectly elastic labor supply - would grossly understate the decline in real wages due to an increase in foreign tariffs.