Online prediction of COVID19 dynamics. Belgian case study
In this paper, we present a new axiomatic model of epidemic development, called HIT, which is consistent with the very special features of COVID19. This is a discrete-time linear switching model for predicting the dynamics of total number of infected persons and concentration of the asymptomatic virus holders in the population. A small number of its parameters can be tuned using the available real-time dynamic data on virus propagation. This model provides us with a rare possibility of online prediction of the future. As an example, we describe an application of this model to the online analys... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | workingPaper |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2020 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26529950 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/230164 |