The role of exposure in the analysis of road accidents: a Belgian case-study

Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, we have access to monthly traffic counts for 12 years. This offers the opportunity to investigate the added value of exposure in our models, next to legal, economic and climatologic variables. Multiple regression with ARMA errors is used to quantify the impact of these factors on aggregated traffic safety. For each dependent variable, a model with and without exposure is construc... Mehr ...