Machine Learning-Based Identification of the Strongest Predictive Variables of Winning and Losing in Belgian Professional Soccer

This study aimed to identify the strongest predictive variables of winning and losing in the highest Belgian soccer division. A predictive machine learning model based on a broad range of variables (n = 100) was constructed, using a dataset consisting of 576 games. To avoid multicollinearity and reduce dimensionality, Variance Inflation Factor (threshold of 5) and BorutaShap were respectively applied. A total of 13 variables remained and were used to predict winning or losing using Extreme Gradient Boosting. TreeExplainer was applied to determine feature importance on a global and local level.... Mehr ...