Online prediction of COVID19 dynamics. Belgian case study

In this paper, we present a new axiomatic model of epidemic development, called HIT, which is consistent with the very special features of COVID19. This is a discrete-time linear switching model for predicting the dynamics of total number of infected persons and concentration of the asymptomatic virus holders in the population. A small number of its parameters can be tuned using the available real-time dynamic data on virus propagation. This model provides us with a rare possibility of online prediction of the future. As an example, we describe an application of this model to the online analys... Mehr ...