Bayesian approach to LR assessment in case of rare type match

The likelihood ratio (LR) is largely used to evaluate the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses, and for its assessment, Bayesian methods are widespread in the forensic field. However, the Bayesian ‘recipe’ for the LR presented in most of the literature consists of plugging‐in Bayesian estimates of the involved nuisance parameters into a frequentist‐defined LR: frequentist and Bayesian methods are thus mixed, giving rise to solutions obtained by hybrid reasoning. This paper provides the derivation of a proper Bayesian approach to assess LRs for the ‘rare type match problem’... Mehr ...