Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia's ruble

In 2014-2015, Russian ruble strongly depreciated. * Since 2014, economic sanctions against Russia and falling oil prices. * Media indices reflect expectations about sanctions. * Methods: Cointegration, VAR, and GARCH. * Main result: Oil price affects ruble, sanctions do not matter. Exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out early 2014, the Russian ruble lost 50% of its value against the US dollar. The impact of the conflict on Russia may ha... Mehr ...