A global macro model for emerging Europe

In this paper we employ a global macro model for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). * We look at five different external macro-shocks and assess the effect on the countries' real economy. * We show that spillovers emanating from the euro area and the U.S.A. are substantial for the region. * This holds true for both unexpected fluctuations in foreign output and foreign shortterm interest rates. * Finally, the region is negatively affected by an oil price hike, with the exception of Russia - and through knock-on effects, other CIS.... Mehr ...