Going down? - Pay deals are still centred on 3%, but the overall spread of awards has dipped, confounding some commentators' recent warnings about wage inflation. This drop in settlement levels at both the top and bottom end of the pay spectrum reflects the continued downward pressure on wage deals and the generally subdued inflationary climate in which pay bargaining has been taken place. But with inflation forecast to rise to 2.8% by the summer, pay setters will be looking closely to see whether the predicted upturn in the cost of living will be translated into a pick-up in pay deals in the first half of 2000.