Natural history and screening model for high‐risk human papillomavirus infection, neoplasia and cervical cancer in the Netherlands

Abstract A simulation model is presented that assumes that persistent infection with high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) is a necessary cause of cervical cancer. For the estimation of the model parameters, data of recent Dutch follow‐up studies were reanalyzed. The predicted incidences of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3) and abnormal cytology were validated with nationwide figures and population‐based screening results. The model predicted a lifetime risk for cervical cancer of 2.9% with a peak at age 48 years. The predicted lifetime risk dropped to... Mehr ...