Abstract Purpose To assess the effects of contemporary treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) on the risk of developing an ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (iIBC) in the Dutch female population. Methods Clinical data was obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide registry of all primary malignancies in the Netherlands integrated with the data from PALGA, the Dutch nationwide network and registry of histo- and cytopathology in the Netherlands, on all women in the Netherlands treated for primary DCIS from 2005 to 2015, resulting in a population-based cohort of 14.419 women. Cumulative iIBC incidence was assessed and associations of DCIS treatment type with subsequent iIBC risk were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Results Ten years after DCIS diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of iIBC was 3.1% (95% CI: 2.6–3.5%) in patients treated by breast conserving surgery (BCS) plus radiotherapy (RT), 7.1% (95% CI: 5.5–9.1) in patients treated by BCS alone, and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.3–2.1) in patients treated by mastectomy. BCS was associated with a significantly higher risk for iIBC compared to BCS + RT during the first 5 years after treatment (HR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.91–4.10%). After 5 years of follow-up, the iIBC risk declined in the BCS alone group but remained higher than the iIBC risk in the BCS + RT group (HR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.15–2.61). Conclusions Although absolute risks of iIBC were low in patients treated for DCIS with either BCS or BCS + RT, risks remained higher in the BCS alone group compared to patients treated with BCS + RT for at least 10 years after DCIS diagnosis.