Do Dutch farmers invest in expansion despite increased policy uncertainty? A participatory Bayesian network approach

Abstract An important but understudied factor influencing strategic decisions of farmers is policy uncertainty. Increased policy uncertainty may expedite the timing of investments in expansion, a phenomenon that has been observed in the Dutch dairy sector in recent years. Using a participatory Bayesian network, we aimed to identify and assess the farm, farmer, and environmental characteristics that explain and predict investment strategies. The variable policy uncertainty is modeled as a multidimensional concept that is a function of objective and subjective variables. We found that the most i... Mehr ...